Squeezing information from regional climate change projections - results from a synthesis of CMIP5 results for south-east Queensland, Australia

Smith, Ian, Syktus, Jozef, McAlpine, Clive and Wong, Kenneth (2013) Squeezing information from regional climate change projections - results from a synthesis of CMIP5 results for south-east Queensland, Australia. Climatic Change, 121 4: 609-619. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0956-4


Author Smith, Ian
Syktus, Jozef
McAlpine, Clive
Wong, Kenneth
Title Squeezing information from regional climate change projections - results from a synthesis of CMIP5 results for south-east Queensland, Australia
Journal name Climatic Change   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0165-0009
1573-1480
Publication date 2013
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0956-4
Open Access Status
Volume 121
Issue 4
Start page 609
End page 619
Total pages 11
Place of publication Dordrecht, The Netherlands
Publisher Springer Netherlands
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Subject 2306 Global and Planetary Change
1902 Film, Television and Digital Media
Abstract We present a synthesis of CMIP5 model results for projected rainfall changes for a single region (south-east Queensland, Australia) and note that, as was evident in CMIP3 results, the multi-model mean projected changes for the late 21st century are not statistically significant for any season nor annually. Taking account of the number of statistically significant changes to mean rainfall, we find some evidence favouring a decrease in both spring and annual rainfall, but this is not compelling. In almost all cases the most frequent result is for no significant change. However, if we consider the number of results where there is a statistically significant change in the distributions of rainfall amounts, there appears to be slightly more information available for risk assessment studies. These numbers suggest an increase in the frequency of both wet and dry events during summer and spring, and a shift towards more frequent dry events during winter. There is no evidence for any significant changes to the distributions for either autumn or annually. The findings suggest that, in one respect, multi-model rainfall projections may contain more information than is evident from syntheses which focus on changes to the means and that, for some regions where changes in the frequency of wet and dry seasons/years have known impacts, the model projections may be more valuable than previously thought.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
Official 2014 Collection
 
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 9 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 11 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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