Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Banu, Shahera, Hu, Wenbiao, Guo, Yuming, Hurst, Cameron and Shilu Tong (2014) Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Environment International, 63 137-142. doi:10.1016/j.envint.2013.11.002


Author Banu, Shahera
Hu, Wenbiao
Guo, Yuming
Hurst, Cameron
Shilu Tong
Title Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh
Journal name Environment International   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0160-4120
Publication date 2014-02
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.envint.2013.11.002
Open Access Status
Volume 63
Start page 137
End page 142
Total pages 6
Place of publication Kidlington, Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Pergamon
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and
consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence thatwarmer temperature
due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections
are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months.Weprojected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptationmeasure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.
Keyword Dengue
Climate change
Projections
Temperature
Dhaka
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published online 28 November 2013

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
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Created: Mon, 09 Dec 2013, 11:58:55 EST by Yuming Guo on behalf of School of Public Health