How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

Iwamura, Takuya, Guisan, Antoine, Wilson, Kerrie A. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2013) How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?. Global Environmental Change, 23 5: 1277-1284. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.016

Author Iwamura, Takuya
Guisan, Antoine
Wilson, Kerrie A.
Possingham, Hugh P.
Title How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?
Journal name Global Environmental Change   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0959-3780
Publication date 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.016
Open Access Status
Volume 23
Issue 5
Start page 1277
End page 1284
Total pages 8
Place of publication Kidlington, Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Pergamon
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Subject 2303 Ecology
2308 Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
3305 Geography, Planning and Development
2306 Global and Planetary Change
Abstract International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Keyword Biodiversity hotspots
Climate change
Climate envelopes
Climate stability index
International biodiversity conservation
Terrestrial ecoregions
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
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