Interpreting fluctuations in output growth in China

Laurenceson, James (2013) Interpreting fluctuations in output growth in China. China Economic Journal, 6 1: 12-20. doi:10.1080/17538963.2013.831236

Author Laurenceson, James
Title Interpreting fluctuations in output growth in China
Journal name China Economic Journal   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1753-8963
Publication date 2013
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1080/17538963.2013.831236
Open Access Status
Volume 6
Issue 1
Start page 12
End page 20
Total pages 9
Place of publication Abingdon, Oxon, United Kingdom
Publisher Routledge
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Subject 2000 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
3316 Cultural Studies
3312 Sociology and Political Science
Abstract Unlike in OECD countries, fluctuations in output growth in China are not straightforward in their interpretation. On the one hand, they reflect the business cycle, which results from shocks to aggregate demand. On the other hand, they also reflect the structural transformations that have accompanied China's transition to a market economy. Demand shocks can be identified by virtue of the persistence of their impact. This paper decomposes the variance in provincial, regional, and national output growth according to its persistence characteristics. The results suggest that during the reform period, only a minority of output growth variance can be attributed to demand shocks and business cycle fluctuations. It is also found that there is substantial heterogeneity in the persistence characteristics of output growth across provinces. Implications of the findings for macroeconomic policy are discussed.
Keyword China
Output growth
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Economics Publications
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Created: Thu, 28 Nov 2013, 19:52:28 EST by System User on behalf of School of Economics