Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts

Steiner, Stefan H., Grant, Kristina, Coory, Michael and Kelly, Heath A. (2010) Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, 10 1: 37.1-37.8. doi:10.1186/1472-6947-10-37


Author Steiner, Stefan H.
Grant, Kristina
Coory, Michael
Kelly, Heath A.
Title Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts
Journal name BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1472-6947
Publication date 2010-01-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1186/1472-6947-10-37
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 10
Issue 1
Start page 37.1
End page 37.8
Total pages 8
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher BioMed Central
Formatted abstract
Background: Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates. The severity and length of influenza outbreaks vary from year to year. Quick and reliable detection of the start of an outbreak is needed to promote public health measures.

Methods: We propose the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart of laboratory confirmed influenza counts to detect the start and end of influenza outbreaks.

Results: The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia.

Conclusions: The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Mater Research Institute-UQ (MRI-UQ)
 
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