Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

Dove, Sophie G., Kline, David I., Pantos, Olga, Angly, Florent E., Tyson, Gene W. and Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove (2013) Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110 38: 15342-15347. doi:10.1073/pnas.1302701110


Author Dove, Sophie G.
Kline, David I.
Pantos, Olga
Angly, Florent E.
Tyson, Gene W.
Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
Title Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario
Formatted title
Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario
Journal name Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0027-8424
1091-6490
Publication date 2013-09
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1302701110
Volume 110
Issue 38
Start page 15342
End page 15347
Total pages 6
Place of publication Washington, DC United States
Publisher National Academy of Sciences
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2.  These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.
Keyword Cimate change
Carbonate balance
Metabolism
Great Barrier Reef
Ocean Acidification
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

 
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Created: Sun, 10 Nov 2013, 00:32:11 EST by System User on behalf of Global Change Institute