Approach to Modeling Demand and Supply for a Short-Notice Evacuation

Noh, Hyunsoo, Chiu, Yi-Chang, Zheng, Hong, Hickman, Mark and Mirchandani, Pitu (2009) Approach to Modeling Demand and Supply for a Short-Notice Evacuation. Transportation Research Record, 2091: 91-99. doi:10.3141/2091-10

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Author Noh, Hyunsoo
Chiu, Yi-Chang
Zheng, Hong
Hickman, Mark
Mirchandani, Pitu
Title Approach to Modeling Demand and Supply for a Short-Notice Evacuation
Journal name Transportation Research Record   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0361-1981
Publication date 2009-01
Year available 2009
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.3141/2091-10
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
Issue 2091
Start page 91
End page 99
Total pages 9
Place of publication Washington, DC, United States
Publisher U.S. National Research Council, Transportation Research Board
Collection year 2009
Language eng
Formatted abstract
 As part of disaster mitigation and evacuation planning, planners must be able to develop effective tactical and operational strategies to manage traffic and transportation needs during an evacuation. One aspect of evacuation planning is the estimation of how many people must be evacuated to provide strategies that are responsive to the number and location of these people. When such estimates are available, it may be possible to implement tactical and operational strategies that closely match the likely demand on the road network during the evacuation. With short notice for an evacuation, people may need to be evacuated directly from current locations. In addition, for some disasters, the spatial extent of the evacuated area may change over time. This problem may be exacerbated by congestion around the evacuated area. An estimation process is proposed for a short-notice evacuation. The method uses on-hand data typically generated through existing travel demand models at many metropolitan planning organizations. It estimates demand using convenient models for trip generation, trip distribution, and travel time generation for these trips, considering a staged evacuation. These demand estimates feed a dynamic simulation model, DynusT, that is used to model the supply characteristics of the roadway network during the evacuation. Such models can be applied using a case study based on a short-notice flooding scenario for Phoenix, Arizona.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Civil Engineering Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 12 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 13 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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