Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change

Mustin, Karen, Dytham, Calvin, Benton, Tim G. and Travis, Justin M. J. (2013) Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change. Diversity and Distributions, 19 7: 815-824. doi:10.1111/ddi.12038

Author Mustin, Karen
Dytham, Calvin
Benton, Tim G.
Travis, Justin M. J.
Title Red noise increases extinction risk during rapid climate change
Journal name Diversity and Distributions   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1366-9516
Publication date 2013-07
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/ddi.12038
Volume 19
Issue 7
Start page 815
End page 824
Total pages 10
Place of publication United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Aim As the global climate is changing rapidly, there is a need to make conservation decisions to facilitate species' persistence under climate change. Models employed to make predictions regarding the impacts of climate change on species' distributions, and ultimately persistence, typically assume that interannual variability in environmental conditions is independent between years. However, the colour of environmental noise has been shown to affect extinction risk in populations occupying spatially static environments, and should therefore affect persistence during climate change. This study aims to investigate the importance of noise colour for extinction risk during climate-induced range shifts.

We use a spatially explicit coupled map lattice with a latitudinal gradient in climatic suitability, together with time series of environmental noise, to simulate periods of directional climate change and investigate the effects of noise colour on extinction risk and range size.

Results Extinction risk increases with reddening of the environmental noise, and this effect is particularly pronounced over short time frames when climate change is rapid.

Main conclusions Given that management decisions are typically made over such short time frames, and the rapid rates of climate change currently being experienced, we highlight the importance of incorporating realistic time series of environmental noise into models used for conservation planning under climate change.
Keyword Climate change
Environmental noise
Extinction risk
Range shifting
Spatial population dynamics
Time population-models
Environmental noise
Dynamic landscapes
Metapopulation persistence
Intraspecific competition
Colored environments
Dispersal distance
Potential impacts
Global change
Range margin
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
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