Quantifying errors in micro-scale emissions models using a case-study approach

Zhu, Sicong and Ferreira, Luis (2013) Quantifying errors in micro-scale emissions models using a case-study approach. Transportation Research Part D-Transport and Environment, 21 19-25. doi:10.1016/j.trd.2013.01.010

Author Zhu, Sicong
Ferreira, Luis
Title Quantifying errors in micro-scale emissions models using a case-study approach
Journal name Transportation Research Part D-Transport and Environment   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1361-9209
Publication date 2013-06
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.trd.2013.01.010
Volume 21
Start page 19
End page 25
Total pages 7
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Pergamon
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
To quantify the level of uncertainty attached to forecasts of CO2 emissions, an analysis of errors is undertaken; looking at both errors inherent in the model structure and the uncertainties in the input data. Both error types are treated in relation to CO2 emissions modelling using a case-study from Brisbane, Australia. To estimate input data uncertainty, an analysis of traffic conditions using Monte Carlo simulation is used. Model structure induced uncertainties are also quantified by statistical analysis for a number of traffic scenarios. To arrive at an optimal overall CO2 prediction, the interaction between the two components is taken into account. Since a more complex model does not necessarily yield higher overall accuracy, a compromise solution is found. The results suggest that the CO2 model used in the analysis produces low overall uncertainty under free flow traffic conditions. When average traffic speeds approach congested conditions, however, there are significant errors associated with emissions estimates
Keyword Micro scale models
CO2 emissions
Monte Carlo simulations
Emissions modelling
Monte Carlo
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Civil Engineering Publications
Official 2014 Collection
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 1 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 1 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Created: Sun, 30 Jun 2013, 00:15:56 EST by System User on behalf of Faculty Of Engineering, Architecture & Info Tech