Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Ponce-Reyes, Rocio, Nicholson, Emily, Baxter, Peter W. J., Fuller, Richard A. and Possingham, Hugh (2013) Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss. Diversity and Distributions, 19 5-6: 518-529. doi:10.1111/ddi.12064


Author Ponce-Reyes, Rocio
Nicholson, Emily
Baxter, Peter W. J.
Fuller, Richard A.
Possingham, Hugh
Title Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss
Journal name Diversity and Distributions   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1366-9516
1472-4642
Publication date 2013-05
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/ddi.12064
Open Access Status
Volume 19
Issue 5-6
Start page 518
End page 529
Total pages 12
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change.

Location: Cloud forests in Mexico.

Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five.

Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas.

Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses.
Keyword Metapopulations
Patch-occupancy model
Probability of extinction
Species distribution modelling
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Mathematics and Physics
Official 2014 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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