Origin and fate of A/H1N1 influenza in Scotland during 2009

Lycett, Samantha, McLeish, Nigel J., Robertson, Christopher, Carman, William, Baillie, Gregory, McMenamin, James, Rambaut, Andrew, Simmonds, Peter, Woolhouse, Mark and Brown, Andrew J. Leigh (2012) Origin and fate of A/H1N1 influenza in Scotland during 2009. Journal of General Virology, 93 6: 1253-1260. doi:10.1099/vir.0.039370-0

Author Lycett, Samantha
McLeish, Nigel J.
Robertson, Christopher
Carman, William
Baillie, Gregory
McMenamin, James
Rambaut, Andrew
Simmonds, Peter
Woolhouse, Mark
Brown, Andrew J. Leigh
Title Origin and fate of A/H1N1 influenza in Scotland during 2009
Journal name Journal of General Virology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0022-1317
Publication date 2012-06
Year available 2012
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1099/vir.0.039370-0
Volume 93
Issue 6
Start page 1253
End page 1260
Total pages 8
Place of publication Reading, Berks, United Kingdom
Publisher Society for General Microbiology
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Formatted abstract
The spread of influenza has usually been described by a 'density' model, where the largest centres of population drive the epidemic within a country. An alternative model emphasizing the role of air travel has recently been developed. We have examined the relative importance of the two in the context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic in Scotland. We obtained genome sequences of 70 strains representative of the geographical and temporal distribution of H1N1 influenza during the summer and winter phases of the pandemic in 2009. We analysed these strains, together with another 128 from the rest of the UK and 292 globally distributed strains, using maximumlikelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographical methods. This revealed strikingly different epidemic patterns within Scotland in the early and late parts of 2009. The summer epidemic in Scotland was characterized by multiple independent introductions from both international and other UK sources, followed by major local expansion of a single clade that probably originated in Birmingham. The winter phase, in contrast, was more diverse genetically, with several clades of similar size in different locations, some of which had no particularly close phylogenetic affinity to strains sampled from either Scotland or England. Overall there was evidence to support both models, with significant links demonstrated between North American sequences and those from England, and between England and East Asia, indicating that major air-travel routes played an important role in the pattern of spread of the pandemic, both within the UK and globally.
Keyword A Virus
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Non HERDC
Institute for Molecular Bioscience - Publications
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Created: Fri, 14 Jun 2013, 11:17:10 EST by Gregory Baillie on behalf of Institute for Molecular Bioscience