A mathematical model of Chikungunya dynamics and control: the major epidemic on Reunion Island

Yakob, Laith and Clements, Archie C. A. (2013) A mathematical model of Chikungunya dynamics and control: the major epidemic on Reunion Island. PLoS One, 8 3: e57448.1-e57448.6. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0057448


Author Yakob, Laith
Clements, Archie C. A.
Title A mathematical model of Chikungunya dynamics and control: the major epidemic on Reunion Island
Journal name PLoS One   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1932-6203
Publication date 2013-03
Year available 2013
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0057448
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 8
Issue 3
Start page e57448.1
End page e57448.6
Total pages 6
Place of publication San Francisco, CA United States
Publisher Public Library of Science
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Chikungunya is a re-emerging arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes spp. mosquitoes. Although principally endemic to Africa and Asia, recent outbreaks have occurred in Europe following introductions by returning travellers. A particularly large outbreak occurred on Réunion Island in 2006, the published data from which forms the basis of the current study. A simple, deterministic mathematical model of the transmission of the virus between humans and mosquitoes was constructed and parameterised with the up-to-date literature on infection biology. The model is fitted to the large Réunion epidemic, resulting in an estimate of 4.1 for the type reproduction number of chikungunya. Although simplistic, the model provided a close approximation of both the peak incidence of the outbreak and the final epidemic size. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated the strong influence that both the latent period of infection in humans and the pre-patent period have on these two epidemiological outcomes. We show why separating these variables, which are epidemiologically distinct in chikungunya infections, is not only necessary for accurate model fitting but also important in informing control
Keyword Vector borne diseases
Virus Infection
Indian Ocean
Aedes albopictus
Malaria Control
Dengue
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
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