The sequential propensity household projection model

Wilson, Tom (2013) The sequential propensity household projection model. Demographic Research, 28 681-712. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.24

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Author Wilson, Tom
Title The sequential propensity household projection model
Journal name Demographic Research   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1435-9871
Publication date 2013-04
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.24
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 28
Start page 681
End page 712
Total pages 32
Place of publication Rostock, Germany
Publisher Max-Planck-Institut fuer Demografische Forschung
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background: The standard method of projecting living arrangements and households in Australia and New Zealand is the ‘propensity model’, a type of extended headship rate model. Unfortunately it possesses a number of serious shortcomings, including internal inconsistencies, difficulties in setting living arrangement assumptions, and very limited scenario creation capabilities. Data allowing the application of more sophisticated dynamic household projection models are unavailable in Australia.

Objective: The aim was to create a projection model to overcome these shortcomings, whilst minimising input data requirements and costs and retaining the projection outputs users are familiar with.

Methods:
The sequential propensity household projection model is proposed. Living arrangement projections take place in a sequence of calculations, with progressively more detailed living arrangement categories calculated in each step. In doing so the model largely overcomes the three serious deficiencies of the standard propensity model noted above.

Projections: The model is illustrated by three scenarios produced for one case-study State, Queensland. They are: a baseline scenario in which all propensities are held constant to demonstrate the effects of population growth and ageing, a housing crisis scenario where housing affordability declines, and a prosperity scenario where families and individuals enjoy greater real incomes. A sensitivity analysis in which assumptions are varied one by one is also presented.


Conclusions:
The sequential propensity model offers a more effective method of producing household and living arrangement projections than the standard propensity model, and is a practical alternative to dynamic projection models for countries and regions where the data and resources to apply such models are unavailable.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
Official 2014 Collection
 
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Created: Sun, 05 May 2013, 00:40:50 EST by System User on behalf of School of Geography, Planning & Env Management