Assessing the uncertainty in micro-simulation model outputs

Zhu, S. and Ferreira, L. (2012). Assessing the uncertainty in micro-simulation model outputs. In: ATRF 2012 Proceedings. 35th Australasian Transport Research Forum Annual Conference (ATRF 2012), Perth, Australia, (). 26-29 September 2012.

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Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads
Author Zhu, S.
Ferreira, L.
Title of paper Assessing the uncertainty in micro-simulation model outputs
Conference name 35th Australasian Transport Research Forum Annual Conference (ATRF 2012)
Conference location Perth, Australia
Conference dates 26-29 September 2012
Proceedings title ATRF 2012 Proceedings
Journal name Australasian Transport Research Forum, ATRF 2012 - Proceedings
Place of Publication Canberra, Australia
Publisher Department of Infrastructure and Transport
Publication Year 2012
Sub-type Fully published paper
Total pages 12
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary
Micro simulation traffic models continue to be widely used as tools to analyse current and future road system performance. Such models tend to operate by concentrating on the movement of individual vehicles in the traffic stream on a second by second basis. The likely errors associated the outputs of such models are usually thought to be significantly lower than the ‘coarser’ models with deal with the movement of groups of vehicles over an average time period. This paper puts forward a methodology to evaluate the uncertainty in the outputs of micro level models by comparing those outputs with field data obtained from loop detectors.

The paper concludes that model uncertainty shows very different characteristics for different traffic flow conditions. The Taguchi statistical method was applied to three traffic flow stages to establish the relationships between modelled vehicle speeds and measured speeds, on a minute-by-minute basis. The results show the close agreement between modelled and actual speeds under both congested and free flow conditions. In contrast, the transitional stage between free flow and queuing shows a higher level of discrepancy.
Keyword Micro simulation traffic
Model uncertainty
Taguchi method
Q-Index Code E1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Conference Paper
Collections: School of Civil Engineering Publications
Official 2013 Collection
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Created: Wed, 27 Mar 2013, 09:58:56 EST by Julie Hunter on behalf of School of Civil Engineering