Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

Toan, Do Thi Thanh, Hu, Wenbiao, Quang Thai, Pham, Hoat, Luu Ngoc, Wright, Pamela and Martens, Pim (2013) Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam. Global Health Action, 6 18632.1-18632.9. doi:10.3402/gha.v6i0.18632

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Author Toan, Do Thi Thanh
Hu, Wenbiao
Quang Thai, Pham
Hoat, Luu Ngoc
Wright, Pamela
Martens, Pim
Title Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam
Journal name Global Health Action   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1654-9880
Publication date 2013-01-24
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.3402/gha.v6i0.18632
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 6
Start page 18632.1
End page 18632.9
Total pages 9
Place of publication Jaerfaella, Sweden
Publisher Co-Action Publishing
Collection year 2014
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Introduction: Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DFover the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Methods: Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran’s I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify spacetime clusters and dispersion of DF.

Results: The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest.

Conclusions:
There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.
Keyword Dengue fever
Hotspots
Dynamic dispersion
Hanoi
Vietnam
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2014 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
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