Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides

Boulange, Julien, Kondo, Kei, Phong, Thai Khanh and Watanabe, Hirozumi (2012) Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides. Journal of Pesticide Science, 37 4: 323-332. doi:10.1584/jpestics.D12-036


Author Boulange, Julien
Kondo, Kei
Phong, Thai Khanh
Watanabe, Hirozumi
Title Analysis of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity in PCPF-1 modeling for predicting concentrations of rice herbicides
Journal name Journal of Pesticide Science   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1348-589X
1349-0923
Publication date 2012-01
Year available 2012
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1584/jpestics.D12-036
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 37
Issue 4
Start page 323
End page 332
Total pages 10
Place of publication Tokyo, Japan
Publisher Pesticide Science Society of Japan
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Abstract This paper demonstrates the procedures for probabilistic assessment of a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, to elucidate the modeling uncertainty using the Monte Carlo technique. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the influence of herbicide characteristics and related soil properties on model outputs using four popular rice herbicides: mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. Uncertainty quantification showed that the simulated concentrations in paddy water varied more than those of paddy soil. This tendency decreased as the simulation proceeded to a later period but remained important for herbicides having either high solubility or a high 1st-order dissolution rate. The sensitivity analysis indicated that PCPF-1 parameters requiring careful determination are primarily those involve with herbicide adsorption (the organic carbon content, the bulk density and the volumetric saturated water content), secondary parameters related with herbicide mass distribution between paddy water and soil (1st-order desorption and dissolution rates) and lastly, those involving herbicide degradations.
Keyword Herbicide
Rice paddy field
PCPF-1
Monte Carlo simulation
Sensitivity
Uncertainty
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published online: 14 November 2012.

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2013 Collection
National Research Centre for Environmental Toxicology Publications
 
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