The devil's tears in the tournament of shadows - oil supply, markets and unstable products

Julien-Joern Mueller (2012). The devil's tears in the tournament of shadows - oil supply, markets and unstable products Master's Thesis, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.

       
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Author Julien-Joern Mueller
Thesis Title The devil's tears in the tournament of shadows - oil supply, markets and unstable products
School, Centre or Institute School of Economics
Institution The University of Queensland
Publication date 2012-10
Thesis type Master's Thesis
Supervisor Liam D. Wagner
Total pages 83
Language eng
Subjects 14 Economics
Formatted abstract

Security of oil supply, its accessibility, availability, and affordability are important concepts in designing sustainable energy policies for advanced and emerging economies. Oil is the driving force for not only transportation and the military industry, but also the entire modem economy that is dependent on oil as a cheap energy source. The reliable supply of oil is therefore a crucial element of economic growth. However, the resource oil is unevenly concentrated in only a few, on average, emerging economies. Inefficient and ineffective resource management can jeopardise the secure flow of oil, since these supply countries are prone to geopolitical and commercial instability. The status of oil suppliers is derived from an endogenous web of relationships. However, most supply security studies focus mainly on the demand side, and the condition of oil suppliers is assumed to be exogenous. This thesis tries to quantify the security of oil supply from a supply side perspective through a composite indicator-based index as a preceding indicator of the selection process. The composite index approach enables relative risk levels to be estimated, and allows for individual as well as group-based comparisons to give qualitative and quantitative statements of the vulnerability of suppliers to oil shock. The scope of the analysis is limited to a sample of 20 selected oil suppliers for the years 2000, 2005, and 2010. Accordingly, with the sample, more than 90% of global oil production is covered to provide robust significance. Furthermore, the focus is set on aggregate relative risk comparisons among selected OPEC, Non-OPEC, and Caspian oil suppliers. Through the indicator identification process, five relevant indicators were identified to account for three out of four oil supply security dimensions. The subsequent composite index analysis combines the indicator results and shows that OPEC is the relatively most risky producer group, followed by the Caspian. Non-OPEC is found to be the relatively least risky group of producers, on average, throughout the analysis. Moreover, it is emphasised that the aggregate results are based on individual developments of the selected oil suppliers, whose endogenous circumstances affect the relative aggregated group risk level. The implications from the analysis are that oil suppliers face not only different degrees of relative risks that vat)' from one petro-economy to another, but they also provide insights into ways and policies to reduce the relative risk levels of the selected oil suppliers. 

Keyword Security of Oil Supply
Risk
OPEC
Non-OPEC
Caspian

Document type: Thesis
Collection: UQ Theses (non-RHD) - UQ staff and students only
 
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