The Effect of Climate Change on Peak Electricity Demand in Australia

Anne_Maren_Erlandsen (2012). The Effect of Climate Change on Peak Electricity Demand in Australia Master's Thesis, School Of Economics, The University of Queensland.

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Author Anne_Maren_Erlandsen
Thesis Title The Effect of Climate Change on Peak Electricity Demand in Australia
School, Centre or Institute School Of Economics
Institution The University of Queensland
Publication date 2012-11-05
Thesis type Master's Thesis
Supervisor Liam Wagner
Total pages 79
Language eng
Subjects 14 Economics
Formatted abstract

The projected increases in average annual temperatures as a result of climate change may have significant consequences for the power system. Peak electricity demand is especially responsive to changes in weather and is driven to its highest levels during days of extreme heat. Multiple regression models have been estimated to identify the climate-sensitivity of peak electricity demand in four member states of the National Electricity Market in Australia. A dynamic model specification with autoregressive errors and lagged temperature effects was found to be the most appropriate for this purpose. To simulate the effect of expected temperature changes for the year 2030, climate change projections were applied to a baseline meteorological year. The results showed that peak demand is more sensitive to the need for cooling than to the need for heating. Peak demand could increase by as much as 4.2% as a result of higher temperatures during summer, while the largest decrease seen in winter from a rise in temperature is 1.4%. As a consequence, the costs of necessary investments in additional plant capacity could reach $1.2 billion. 

Keyword Peak electricity demand, Climate Change, Multiple regression
Autore- gressive effects
The National Electricity Market

Document type: Thesis
Collection: UQ Theses (non-RHD) - UQ staff and students only
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