Drought experienced by Australian wheat: current and future trends

Chenu, Karine and Chapman, Scott (2012). Drought experienced by Australian wheat: current and future trends. In: I. Yunusa, Capturing Opportunities and Overcoming Obstacles in Australian Agronomy: Proceedings of 16th Agronomy Conference 2012. 16th Australian Agronomy Conference, Armidale, NSW, Australia, (). 14-18 October 2012.

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Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads
Author Chenu, Karine
Chapman, Scott
Title of paper Drought experienced by Australian wheat: current and future trends
Conference name 16th Australian Agronomy Conference
Conference location Armidale, NSW, Australia
Conference dates 14-18 October 2012
Proceedings title Capturing Opportunities and Overcoming Obstacles in Australian Agronomy: Proceedings of 16th Agronomy Conference 2012
Place of Publication Armidale, NSW, Australia
Publisher Australian Society of Agronomy
Publication Year 2012
Sub-type Fully published paper
Editor I. Yunusa
Total pages 7
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary
Drought frequently limits Australian wheat production and the expected future increase in extreme temperatures and rainfall variability will further challenge productivity. A modelling approach captured plant x environment x management interactions to simulate drought patterns experienced by wheat crops for representative locations and managements across the wheatbelt. Simulations were performed for 123 years of ‘current’ climate (1889-2011) and four future climatic scenarios for 2030, accounting for predicted shifts in sowing dates and soil water content at sowing.

Across the wheatbelt, four main drought-environment types have been identified for the ‘current’ climates, ranging from stress-free/light-stress to severe stress with terminal drought. The frequency of occurrence of these environment types greatly varied across seasons and locations, and these variations tended to accentuate in future climate. Frequency of the most-severe (terminal) drought type was predicted to increase by 10 to 77% on average across the wheatbelt for the studied future climatic scenarios, with some high spatial variability between regions. While the Wet & Low emission scenario had no substantial impact on drought frequency in most regions,
the Dry & High emission scenario more than doubled severe-drought frequency in several regions and substantially impacted the others (>25% increase). Further study is needed to assess alternative options (genotype and management) to reduce future drought impact, in particular for the Dry & High emission scenario.
Keyword Water deficit
Environment characterisation
Mega-environment
Climate change
Modelling
APSIM
Q-Index Code E1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

 
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Created: Wed, 13 Feb 2013, 17:16:51 EST by Dr Karine Chenu on behalf of Qld Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation