Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility: a comparison of terrorism patterns in three southeast Asian countries

White, Gentry, Porter, Michael D. and Mazerolle, Lorraine (2013) Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility: a comparison of terrorism patterns in three southeast Asian countries. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 29 2: 295-320.


Author White, Gentry
Porter, Michael D.
Mazerolle, Lorraine
Title Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility: a comparison of terrorism patterns in three southeast Asian countries
Journal name Journal of Quantitative Criminology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0748-4518
1573-7799
Publication date 2013-06
Year available 2012
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1007/s10940-012-9181-y
Volume 29
Issue 2
Start page 295
End page 320
Total pages 26
Place of publication New York, NY, United States
Publisher Springer
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Formatted abstract Objective: This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Methods: We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity.

Results: Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 ‘‘expected terrorist attacks per day’’, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 ‘‘additional attacks caused by each attack’’, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia.

Conclusions: Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable ‘‘metrics’’ to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.
Keyword Terrorism
Risk
Volatility
Resilience
Point process
Hawkes
Self-exciting
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published online: 5 October 2012.

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Institute for Social Science Research - Publications
Official 2013 Collection
 
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Created: Mon, 22 Oct 2012, 12:30:51 EST by Dr Gentry White on behalf of ISSR - Research Groups