Predicting the benefits of banana bunchy top virus exclusion from commercial plantations in Australia

Cook, David C., Liu, Shuang, Edwards, Jacqueline, Villalta, Oscar N., Aurambout, Jean-Philippe, Kriticos, Darren J., Drenth, Andre and De Barro, Paul J. (2012) Predicting the benefits of banana bunchy top virus exclusion from commercial plantations in Australia. PloS One, 7 8: .


Author Cook, David C.
Liu, Shuang
Edwards, Jacqueline
Villalta, Oscar N.
Aurambout, Jean-Philippe
Kriticos, Darren J.
Drenth, Andre
De Barro, Paul J.
Title Predicting the benefits of banana bunchy top virus exclusion from commercial plantations in Australia
Journal name PloS One   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1932-6203
Publication date 2012-08-07
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0042391
Volume 7
Issue 8
Total pages 9
Place of publication San Francisco, CA, United States
Publisher Public Library of Science
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Abstract Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9- 27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response.
Keyword Disease
Spread
Eradication
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
Official 2013 Collection
 
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