Counter-factual scenario planning for long-range sustainable local-level tourism transformation

McLennan, Char-lee, Pham, Tien, Ritchie, Brent and Moyle, Brent (2012) Counter-factual scenario planning for long-range sustainable local-level tourism transformation. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20 6: 801-822. doi:10.1080/09669582.2012.685173

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Author McLennan, Char-lee
Pham, Tien
Ritchie, Brent
Moyle, Brent
Title Counter-factual scenario planning for long-range sustainable local-level tourism transformation
Journal name Journal of Sustainable Tourism   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0966-9582
Publication date 2012
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1080/09669582.2012.685173
Open Access Status
Volume 20
Issue 6
Start page 801
End page 822
Total pages 23
Place of publication Abingdon, Oxon, United Kingdom
Publisher Routledge
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Abstract Many traditionally agricultural dependent economies have transformed towards service industries, such as tourism. This transformation resulted in significant impacts upon economies, communities and the environment. However, existing indicators to measure the impacts of tourism on regions have not been examined across the transformation process, leaving a gap in the understanding of long-range planning for tourism. Therefore, this paper investigates the relationship between economic, social and environmental indicators across the three main phases of tourism transformation. The three broad phases of tourism transformation can be observed to commence (inception), grow (construction) and then enter a steady state (urbanisation). To investigate this, our research surveyed 303 residents across three local areas at different stages of economic development and tourism dependency, to develop tourism, economic, social and environmental indicators. Employing counter-factual data, generalised ordinal logistic regression models were used to predict and compare the impact of changes in tourism on the economy, society and the environment across the regions. The findings indicate that the relationships between tourism and the triple bottom line differ depending on the stage of development. This research provides insight into local-level long-range planning, which can enable more sustainable tourism transformation, and explores avenues for future research.
Keyword Tourism transformation
Long-range planning
Scenario analysis
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Version of record first published: 18 May 2012

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2013 Collection
UQ Business School Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 8 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 9 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Created: Wed, 27 Jun 2012, 15:05:35 EST by Jane Malady on behalf of School of Tourism