A tale of two provinces in China : is there an oversupply of doctors in Guangdong and Guangxi?

There is an argument from some researchers that doctors are oversupply while others state that China is experiencing a shortage of doctors. The aim of this thesis is to investigate whether there is a shortage or surplus of doctors in two provinces in China, Guangdong and Guangxi. It is hoped that the findings drawn from this study will contribute to the debate and enhance awareness of the public about the issues in China.

Three research questions are addressed in this thesis and three different approaches have been used to answer these questions. We used several equations to estimate the demand for doctors in order to answer the first research question. The Gini coefficient is calculated in order to answer the second research question. Lastly, the ARMA Model is used to forecast the future demand for doctors in order to answer the third research question. 

The results of our analysis suggest that there is a shortage of doctors in both Guangdong and Guangxi Province. The inequality in the distribution of doctors in Guangxi Province is acceptable and is improving; the inequality of access to doctors for the population in Guangdong Province is beginning to cause concern and seems to be getting worse. In the next six years, the demand for doctors will increase in Guangdong Province while the increase rate is expected to fall in Guangxi Province. The new information from our research may help policy makers to develop appropriate strategies in solving the issue of the supply of doctors in China.