How many deaths are attributable to smoking in the United States? Comparison of methods for estimating smoking-attributable mortality when smoking prevalence changes

Oza, Shefali, Thun, Michael J., Henley, S. Jane, Lopez, Alan D. and Ezzati, Majid (2011) How many deaths are attributable to smoking in the United States? Comparison of methods for estimating smoking-attributable mortality when smoking prevalence changes. Preventive Medicine, 52 6: 428-433. doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2011.04.007


Author Oza, Shefali
Thun, Michael J.
Henley, S. Jane
Lopez, Alan D.
Ezzati, Majid
Title How many deaths are attributable to smoking in the United States? Comparison of methods for estimating smoking-attributable mortality when smoking prevalence changes
Journal name Preventive Medicine   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0091-7435
1096-0260
Publication date 2011-06-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.ypmed.2011.04.007
Volume 52
Issue 6
Start page 428
End page 433
Total pages 6
Place of publication Maryland Heights, MO, United States
Publisher Academic Press
Collection year 2012
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background: The number of smoking-attributable deaths is commonly estimated using current and former smoking prevalences or lung cancer mortality as an indirect metric of cumulative population smoking. Neither method accounts for differences in the timing with which relative risks (RRs) for different diseases change following smoking initiation and cessation. We aimed to develop a method to account for time-dependent RRs. Methods: We used birth cohort lung cancer mortality and its change over time to characterize time-varying cumulative smoking exposure. We analyzed data from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II to estimate RRs for disease-specific mortality associated with current and former smoking, and change in RRs over time after cessation. Results: When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 254,700 male and 227,000 female deaths were attributed to smoking in the US in 2005. A modified method in which RRs for different diseases decreased at different rates after cessation yielded similar but slightly lower estimates [251,900 (male) and 221,100 (female)]. The lowest estimates resulted from the method based on smoking prevalence [225,800 (male) and 163,700 (female)]. Conclusions: Although all methods estimated a large number of smoking attributable deaths, future efforts should account for temporal changes in smoking prevalence and in accumulation/reversibility of disease-specific risks.
Keyword Population health
Risk assessment
Smoking
Smoking cessation
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2012 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
 
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 30 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 32 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Created: Fri, 16 Mar 2012, 21:54:28 EST by Geraldine Fitzgerald on behalf of School of Public Health