Predicting outbreaks of a migratory pest: An analysis of DBM distribution and abundance revisited

Zalucki, M. P. and Furlong, M. J. (2011). Predicting outbreaks of a migratory pest: An analysis of DBM distribution and abundance revisited. In: R. Srinivasan, Anthony M. Shelton and Hilda L. Collins, Proceedings: The Sixth International Workshop on Management of the Diamondback Moth and Other Crucifer Insect Pests. International Workshop on Management of the Diamondback Moth and Other Crucifer Insect Pests (6th, 2011), Nakhon Pathom, Thailand, (8-14). 21-25 March 2011.

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Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads
Author Zalucki, M. P.
Furlong, M. J.
Title of paper Predicting outbreaks of a migratory pest: An analysis of DBM distribution and abundance revisited
Conference name International Workshop on Management of the Diamondback Moth and Other Crucifer Insect Pests (6th, 2011)
Conference location Nakhon Pathom, Thailand
Conference dates 21-25 March 2011
Convener AVRDC: The World Vegetable Center
Proceedings title Proceedings: The Sixth International Workshop on Management of the Diamondback Moth and Other Crucifer Insect Pests
Place of Publication Shanhua, Tainan, Taiwan
Publisher AVRDC: The World Vegetable Centre
Publication Year 2011
Sub-type Fully published paper
ISBN 9789290581901
9290581905
Editor R. Srinivasan
Anthony M. Shelton
Hilda L. Collins
Volume 11-755
Start page 8
End page 14
Total pages 7
Collection year 2012
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary
Our estimates of the effect of climate on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of diamondback moth have been revised. Using the known limits of the species’ range, experimental observations and the known and inferred responses of the pest to temperature and moisture as the base data, we have parameterized a CLIMEX model to predict temporal abundance and spatial distributions of diamondback moth. We test our model by comparing the predicted diamondback moth distribution with its “known” distribution; for such a major pest the latter is very poorly defined indeed. We further analyze changes in relative abundance among years due to variable climatic conditions, using a series of long-term diamondback moth population data sets from China and England and associated weather data. Models such as this are crucial to our understanding of the reasons for changes in DBM abundance. They are also essential for the development of long-term pest pressure forecasts and allow us to begin to disentangle the effects of various management practices from the normal variation in abundance due to climate alone.
Keyword Bioclimatic modelling
Forecasts
Prediction
Population outbreaks
Plutella xylostella
Q-Index Code E1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Published under Session 1: "Diamondback moth & other crucifer insect pests - global challenges in the 21st century".

Document type: Conference Paper
Collections: Official 2012 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
 
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Created: Wed, 14 Mar 2012, 14:43:30 EST by Gail Walter on behalf of School of Biological Sciences