Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005-2025

Haby, Michelle M., Markwick, Alison, Peeters, Anna, Shaw, Jonathan and Vos, Theo (2012) Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005-2025. Health Promotion International, 27 2: 250-260. doi:10.1093/heapro/dar036

Author Haby, Michelle M.
Markwick, Alison
Peeters, Anna
Shaw, Jonathan
Vos, Theo
Title Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005-2025
Journal name Health Promotion International   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0957-4824
Publication date 2012-06
Year available 2011
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1093/heapro/dar036
Volume 27
Issue 2
Start page 250
End page 260
Total pages 11
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Oxford University Press
Collection year 2012
Language eng
Formatted abstract
To predict current and future body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children and adults based on sex, age and year of birth (cohort). These predictions are needed for population health planning and evaluation. Data were drawn from 11 cross-sectional national or state population surveys conducted in Australia between 1969 and 2004. These included representative population samples of children (n = 27635) and adults (n = 43447) aged 5 years or older with measured height and weight data. Multiple linear regression analyses of measured log-transformed BMI data were conducted to determine the independent effects of age and year of birth (cohort) on ln(BMI) for males and females, respectively. Regression coefficients for cohort obtained from these analyses were applied to the National Nutrition Survey 1995 data set to predict mean BMI and prevalence of overweight (BMI 25–29.99 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30kg/m2) in 2005, 2015 and 2025. Based on past trends, BMI is predicted to continue to increase for both males and females and across the age span. This would result in increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity of between 0.4 and 0.8% per year, such that by 2025 around one-third of 5–19 year olds will be overweight or obese as will 83% of males and 75% of females aged 20 years and over. The increases in prevalence and mean BMI predicted in this study will have significant impacts on disease burden, healthcare costs and need for prevention and treatment programmes.
Keyword Body mass index
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes First published online: June 16, 2011

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2012 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Created: Wed, 14 Mar 2012, 12:25:14 EST by Geraldine Fitzgerald on behalf of School of Public Health