Investigation of Demand Diversity in Electricity Market Simulation

Carla Ziser (2011). Investigation of Demand Diversity in Electricity Market Simulation PhD Thesis, School of Information Technol and Elec Engineering, The University of Queensland.

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Author Carla Ziser
Thesis Title Investigation of Demand Diversity in Electricity Market Simulation
School, Centre or Institute School of Information Technol and Elec Engineering
Institution The University of Queensland
Publication date 2011-07
Thesis type PhD Thesis
Supervisor Professor Tapan Saha
Professor Zhao Yang Dong
Total pages 202
Total colour pages 21
Total black and white pages 201
Language eng
Subjects 090607 Power and Energy Systems Engineering (excl. Renewable Power)
010406 Stochastic Analysis and Modelling
Abstract/Summary In an electricity market that consists of several separate regions, interconnection of these regions enables sharing of generation throughout regions. Demands levels for individual regions in an interconnected system, coupled with generation price structures, affect the amount of interconnector flow that occurs between regions as well as market pricing outcomes. Investigation of demand diversity and its relevance to electricity market outcomes is a previously undefined, complex task requiring the use of several modelling techniques and in-depth data analysis. The limited extent to which demand diversity has been measured, forecasted, and related to planning decisions for a power system in a deregulated market environment intensifies the problem. It is important that the market and reliability benefits realised through interconnection are accurately portrayed when performing electricity market simulations. Therefore, it is extremely necessary for the correlations between regional demands to be properly represented. Demand diversity can be thought of as the extent to which regional demand patterns differ from each other. The work contained in this Thesis achieves the research goal of developing and implementing a methodology for measuring demand diversity, of assessing the effects of diversity, and of understanding the uncertainty in market simulation results due to the probabilistic nature of diversity. Improved demand diversity measurement techniques are proposed to enable more detailed quantification of demand diversity levels. Included in the methodology for assessing the effects of diversity is consideration of weather pattern uncertainty – this is achieved by development of a new method for synthetic weather patterns production. Additionally, a new demand forecast model is proposed which is capable of producing long-term demand forecasts at a high time resolution. A literature review is provided throughout the Thesis for examination of the state-of-art of electricity market simulation, electricity demand forecasting techniques, and diversity measurement. Additionally, current industry practice in these areas and power systems planning processes are examined. The electricity market impacts and power systems planning implications for improved electricity demand forecasting and appropriate consideration of weather pattern uncertainty and consequent demand diversity levels are analysed.
Keyword Electricity market
demand forecasting
power system planning
Additional Notes Colour pages 19,28,29,30,31,35,36,37,41,45,47,51,52,84,85,112,139,141,142,143,145,

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Created: Mon, 12 Mar 2012, 18:45:26 EST by Ms Carla Ziser on behalf of Library - Information Access Service