Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: A systematic analysis

Murray, Christopher J. L., Rosenfeld, Lisa C., Lim, Stephen S,, Andrews, Kathryn G., Foreman, Kyle J., Haring, Diana, Fullman, Nancy, Naghavi, Mohsen, Lozano, Rafael and Lopez, Alan D. (2012) Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: A systematic analysis. Lancet, 379 9814: 413-431. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60034-8

Author Murray, Christopher J. L.
Rosenfeld, Lisa C.
Lim, Stephen S,
Andrews, Kathryn G.
Foreman, Kyle J.
Haring, Diana
Fullman, Nancy
Naghavi, Mohsen
Lozano, Rafael
Lopez, Alan D.
Title Global malaria mortality between 1980 and 2010: A systematic analysis
Journal name Lancet   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0140-6736
Publication date 2012-02
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60034-8
Volume 379
Issue 9814
Start page 413
End page 431
Total pages 19
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher The Lancet Publishing Group
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Background: During the past decade, renewed global and national efforts to combat malaria have led to ambitious goals. We aimed to provide an accurate assessment of the levels and time trends in malaria mortality to aid assessment of progress towards these goals and the focusing of future efforts.

Methods: We systematically collected all available data for malaria mortality for the period 1980–2010, correcting for misclassification bias. We developed a range of predictive models, including ensemble models, to estimate malaria mortality with uncertainty by age, sex, country, and year. We used key predictors of malaria mortality such as Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence, first-line antimalarial drug resistance, and vector control. We used out-of-sample predictive validity to select the final model.

Findings: Global malaria deaths increased from 995 000 (95% uncertainty interval 711 000–1 412 000) in 1980 to a peak of 1 817 000 (1 430 000–2 366 000) in 2004, decreasing to 1 238 000 (929 000–1 685 000) in 2010. In Africa, malaria deaths increased from 493 000 (290 000–747 000) in 1980 to 1 613 000 (1 243 000–2 145 000) in 2004, decreasing by about 30% to 1 133 000 (848 000–1 591 000) in 2010. Outside of Africa, malaria deaths have steadily decreased from 502 000 (322 000–833 000) in 1980 to 104 000 (45 000–191 000) in 2010. We estimated more deaths in individuals aged 5 years or older than has been estimated in previous studies: 435 000 (307 000–658 000) deaths in Africa and 89 000 (33 000–177 000) deaths outside of Africa in 2010.

Interpretation: Our findings show that the malaria mortality burden is larger than previously estimated, especially in adults. There has been a rapid decrease in malaria mortality in Africa because of the scaling up of control activities supported by international donors. Donor support, however, needs to be increased if malaria elimination and eradication and broader health and development goals are to be met.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Keyword Plasmodium-falciparum malaria
187 Countries
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2013 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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