Financing for peace: effects of aid and debt on post-conflict peace

Davies, Bethany Therese (2011). Financing for peace: effects of aid and debt on post-conflict peace Honours Thesis, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.

       
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Author Davies, Bethany Therese
Thesis Title Financing for peace: effects of aid and debt on post-conflict peace
School, Centre or Institute School of Economics
Institution The University of Queensland
Publication date 2011
Thesis type Honours Thesis
Supervisor Dr Fabrizio Carmignani
Total pages 90
Language eng
Subjects 340000 Economics
Formatted abstract

This thesis analyses the effect of foreign aid and external debt on the stabilization of peace within post-conflict countries. The post-conflict period is central within the model as the risk of war is highest following the resolution of a previous conflict. Considering current models within the literature a theoretical representation of the effect of international financial assistance on the post-conflict interaction between a government and rebel opposition is formulated. Using the theoretical predictions determined from the model a comprehensive approach to regression analysis is utilized to estimate the empirical effect of foreign aid and external debt on the probability of peace in a sample of cross country post-conflict economies. The results suggest an economically important positive effect of foreign aid on the sustainability of peace during post-conflict, however, the effect of external debt remains theoretically ambiguous The main contribution of this thesis extends on the current post-conflict literature to present a model, which can be used to explain the effect of foreign aid and external debt on peace stabilization within fragile states and providing a step towards better understanding of the problem of civil war onset.

Keyword Civil War
Post-conflict
Sustainable Peace
Aid
Debt
Probit Model
Duration analysis

 
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Created: Tue, 28 Feb 2012, 12:58:05 EST by Carmen Mcnaught on behalf of School of Economics