The forecast accuracy of local government area population projections: A case study of Queensland

Wilson, Tom and Rowe, Francisco (2011) The forecast accuracy of local government area population projections: A case study of Queensland. Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 17 2: 204-243.

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Author Wilson, Tom
Rowe, Francisco
Title The forecast accuracy of local government area population projections: A case study of Queensland
Journal name Australasian Journal of Regional Studies
ISSN 1324-0935
Publication date 2011-12-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
Open Access Status
Volume 17
Issue 2
Start page 204
End page 243
Total pages 40
Place of publication Wollongong, N.S.W., Australia
Publisher Regional Science Association
Collection year 2012
Language eng
Abstract Users of population projections tend to assume that they provide accurate predictions of future demographic trends. However, there is limited evidence to either support or refute this assumption because almost no research has evaluated the accuracy of past projections in Australia. This paper assesses the forecast accuracy of seven previous rounds of local government area population projections for Queensland. The analysis reveals errors to be quite large in absolute terms and in relation to State forecast errors, but respectable compared to those reported in other studies. Relative to simple extrapolative forecasts, the official Queensland projections are shown to have performed quite well. Fractional response models are employed to determine the extent to which forecast errors can be predicted on the basis of local area characteristics. The concluding section suggests ways in which forecast error might be reduced and how users can be informed about the possible magnitude of error in current projections.
Keyword Population projections
Forecast accuracy
Local government areas
Queensland
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
Official 2012 Collection
 
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Created: Mon, 30 Jan 2012, 14:34:38 EST by Dr Tom Wilson on behalf of School of Geography, Planning & Env Management