Spatially varying temperature trends in a Central California estuary

Lemos, Ricardo T., Sanso, Bruno and Los Huertos, Marc (2007) Spatially varying temperature trends in a Central California estuary. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 12 3: 379-396. doi:10.1198/108571107X227603

Author Lemos, Ricardo T.
Sanso, Bruno
Los Huertos, Marc
Title Spatially varying temperature trends in a Central California estuary
Journal name Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1085-7117
Publication date 2007-09
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1198/108571107X227603
Volume 12
Issue 3
Start page 379
End page 396
Total pages 18
Place of publication New York, United States
Publisher Springer New York
Language eng
Abstract We consider monthly temperature data collected over a period of 16 years at 24 stations in the estuarine wetlands of the Elkhorn Slough watershed, located in the Monterey Bay area in Central California, USA. Our goal is to develop a statistical model in order to separate the seasonal cycle, short-term fluctuations, and long-term trends, while accounting for the spatial variability of these features. In the model, each station has a specific, time-invariant mixture of two seasonal patterns, to encompass the spatial variability of oceanic influence. Likewise, trends are modeled as local mixtures of two patterns, to include the spatial variability of long-term temperature change. Finally, all stations share a common baseline, whose temporal variability is linearly dependent on a variable that summarizes several atmospheric measurements. We use a Bayesian approach with a purposely developed Markov chain Monte Carlo method to explore the posterior distribution of the parameters. We find that the seasonal cycles have changed in time, that neighboring stations can have substantially different behaviors, and that most stations show significant warming trends.
Keyword Bayesian modeling
Mixture models
Space-time models
Time-varying trends
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Mathematics and Physics
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Created: Tue, 24 Jan 2012, 13:41:51 EST by Ricardo Silva Tavares De Lemos on behalf of School of Mathematics & Physics