Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model

Caplat, Paul, Ran, Nathan and Buckley, Yvonne (2012) Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model. Ecology, 93 2: 368-377. doi:10.1890/11-0820.1

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Author Caplat, Paul
Ran, Nathan
Buckley, Yvonne
Title Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model
Journal name Ecology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0012-9658
Publication date 2012-02
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1890/11-0820.1
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
Volume 93
Issue 2
Start page 368
End page 377
Total pages 10
Place of publication Ithaca, NY, United States
Publisher Ecological Society of America
Collection year 2013
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread,
particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically-derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterised using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate and three wind properties – turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed and standard deviation of vertical wind speed – are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions which facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multi-species comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.
Keyword integrodifference equation
invasion biology
long-distance dispersal
matrix model
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2013 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
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Created: Fri, 18 Nov 2011, 16:28:25 EST by Gail Walter on behalf of School of Biological Sciences