Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia

Baker, Philip R. A., Sun, Jiandong, Morris, James and Dines, Amanda (2011) Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 17 9: 1608-1614. doi:10.3201/eid1709.102012

Author Baker, Philip R. A.
Sun, Jiandong
Morris, James
Dines, Amanda
Title Epidemiologic modeling with FluSurge for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, Queensland, Australia
Journal name Emerging Infectious Diseases   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1080-6040
Publication date 2011-09
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.3201/eid1709.102012
Open Access Status DOI
Volume 17
Issue 9
Start page 1608
End page 1614
Total pages 7
Place of publication Atlanta, GA, United States
Publisher U.S. Department of Health and Human Services * Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Collection year 2012
Language eng
Abstract At the beginning of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak, we estimated the potential surge in demand for hospital based services in 4 Health Service Districts of Queensland, Australia, using the FluSurge model. Modifi cations to the model were made on the basis of emergent evidence and results provided to local hospitals to inform resource planning for the forthcoming pandemic. To evaluate the fit of the model, a comparison between the model’s predictions and actual hospitalizations was made. In early 2010, a Web-based survey was undertaken to evaluate the model’s usefulness. Predictions based on modifi ed assumptions arising from the new pandemic gained better fit than results from the default model. The survey identified that the modeling support was helpful and useful to service planning for local hospitals.Our research illustrates an integrated framework involving post hoc comparison and evaluation for implementing epidemiologic modeling in response to a public health emergency.
Keyword Critical Care Services
New Zealand
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2012 Collection
School of Medicine Publications
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