Climate warming and the rainforest birds of the Australian Wet Tropics: Using abundance data as a sensitive predictor of change in total population size

Shoo, Luke P., Williams, Stephen E. and Hero, Jean- Marc (2005) Climate warming and the rainforest birds of the Australian Wet Tropics: Using abundance data as a sensitive predictor of change in total population size. Biological Conservation, 125 3: 335-343. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2005.04.003


Author Shoo, Luke P.
Williams, Stephen E.
Hero, Jean- Marc
Title Climate warming and the rainforest birds of the Australian Wet Tropics: Using abundance data as a sensitive predictor of change in total population size
Journal name Biological Conservation   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0006-3207
1873-2917
Publication date 2005-10
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2005.04.003
Volume 125
Issue 3
Start page 335
End page 343
Total pages 9
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elservier B. V.
Language eng
Abstract Global average surface temperatures have increased rapidly over the last 100 years and there is accumulating evidence that climate change is already causing shifts in species’ distributions. We use extensive abundance data and expected range shifts across altitudinal gradients to predict changes in total population size of rainforest birds of Australian tropical rainforests in response to climate warming. According to our most conservative model scenario, 74% of rainforest birds of north-eastern Australia are predicted to become threatened (including 26 critically endangered species) as a result of projected mid-range warming expected within the next 100 years. Extinction risk varies according to where along the altitudinal gradient a species is currently most abundant. Upland birds are most affected and are likely to be immediately threatened by even small increases in temperature. In contrast, there is a capacity for the population size of lowland species to increase, at least in the short term. We conclude that abundance data collected across climatic gradients will be fundamental to gaining an understanding of population size change associated with climate warming.
Keyword Climate change
Abundance
Altitudinal gradient
Range shift
Population size
Rainforest birds
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: ERA 2012 Admin Only
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