Conservation planning under climate change : Toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time

Carvalho, Silvia B., Brito, Jose C., Crespo, Eduardo G., Watts, Matthew E. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2011) Conservation planning under climate change : Toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time. Biological Conservation, 144 7: 2020-2030. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.04.024


Author Carvalho, Silvia B.
Brito, Jose C.
Crespo, Eduardo G.
Watts, Matthew E.
Possingham, Hugh P.
Title Conservation planning under climate change : Toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time
Journal name Biological Conservation   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0006-3207
Publication date 2011-07
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2011.04.024
Volume 144
Issue 7
Start page 2020
End page 2030
Total pages 11
Place of publication The Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier BV
Collection year 2012
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Climate warming challenges our approach to building systems of protected areas because it is likely to drive accelerating shifts in species distributions, and the projections of those future species distributions are uncertain. There are several important sources of uncertainty intrinsic to using species occurrence projections for reserve system design including uncertainty in the number of occurrences captured by any reserve selection solution, and uncertainty arising from the different approaches used to fit predictive models. Here we used the present and future predicted distributions of Iberian herptiles to analyze how dynamics and uncertainty in species distributions may affect decisions about resource allocation for conservation in space and time. We identified priority areas maximizing coverage of current and future (2020 and 2080) predicted distributions of 65 species, under " Mild" and " Severe" uncertainty. Next, we applied a return-on-investment analysis to quantify and make explicit trade-offs between investing in areas selected when optimizing for different times and with different uncertainty levels. Areas identified as important for conservation in every time frame and uncertainty level were the ones considered to be robust climate adaptation investments, and included chiefly already protected areas. Areas identified only under " Mild" uncertainty were considered good candidates for investment if extra resources are available and were mainly located in northern Iberia. However, areas selected only in the " Severe" uncertainty case should not be completely disregarded as they may become climatic refugia for some species. Our study provides an objective methodology to deliver " no regrets" conservation investments. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
Keyword Global warming
Return-on-investment
Marxan
Conservation prioritization
Scenario analysis
Iberian Peninsula
Reserve-Selection
Distribution Models
Extinction Risk
Areas
Networks
Costs
Biodiversity
Landscapes
Scenarios
Declines
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Mathematics and Physics
Official 2012 Collection
Ecology Centre Publications
 
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 67 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 70 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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