Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population

Rhodes, Jonathan R., Ng, Chooi Fei, de Villiers, Deidré L., Preece, Harriet J., McAlpine, Clive A. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2011) Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population. Biological Conservation, 144 3: 1081-1088. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.12.027


Author Rhodes, Jonathan R.
Ng, Chooi Fei
de Villiers, Deidré L.
Preece, Harriet J.
McAlpine, Clive A.
Possingham, Hugh P.
Title Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population
Journal name Biological Conservation   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0006-3207
1873-2917
Publication date 2011-03-01
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2010.12.027
Volume 144
Issue 3
Start page 1081
End page 1088
Total pages 8
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier
Collection year 2012
Language eng
Formatted abstract
Many species of conservation concern are in decline due to threats from multiple sources. To quantify the conservation requirements of these species we need robust estimates of the impact of each threat on the rate of population decline. However, for the vast majority of species this information is lacking. Here we demonstrate the application of integrated population modelling as a means of deriving robust estimates of the impact of multiple threats for a rapidly declining koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in South-east Queensland, Australia. Integrated population modelling provides a basis for reducing uncertainty and bias by formally integrating information from multiple data sources into a single model. We quantify mortality rates due to threats from dog attacks, vehicle collisions and disease and the extent to which each of these mortality rates would need to be reduced, or how much habitat would need to be restored, to stop the population declining. We show that the integrated population modelling approach substantially reduces uncertainty. We also show that recovery actions that only address single threats would need to reduce those threats to implausibly low levels to recover the population. This indicates that strategies for simultaneously tackling multiple threats are necessary; a situation that is likely to be true for many of the world’s threatened species. This study provides an important framework for quantifying the conservation requirements of species undergoing declines due to multiple threats.
Keyword Bayesian statistics
Integrated population model
Koala
Matrix population model
Multiple threats
Recovery strategies
South-east queensland
Regional koala population
Viability analysis
Conservation
Abundance
Habitat
Management
Landscapes
Mortality
Dynamics
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Special Issue: "The New Conservation Debate: Beyond Parks vs. People".

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management Publications
Official 2012 Collection
Ecology Centre Publications
 
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 41 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 47 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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Created: Thu, 14 Jul 2011, 21:44:28 EST by Helen Smith on behalf of School of Geography, Planning & Env Management