Frost in northeast Australia: trends and influences of phases of the southern oscillation

Stone, Roger, Nicholls, Neville and Hammer, Graeme (1996) Frost in northeast Australia: trends and influences of phases of the southern oscillation. Journal of Climate, 9 8: 1896-1909. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1896:FINATA>2.0.CO;2

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Author Stone, Roger
Nicholls, Neville
Hammer, Graeme
Title Frost in northeast Australia: trends and influences of phases of the southern oscillation
Journal name Journal of Climate   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0894-8755
1520-0442
Publication date 1996-08
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<1896:FINATA>2.0.CO;2
Open Access Status File (Publisher version)
Volume 9
Issue 8
Start page 1896
End page 1909
Total pages 14
Place of publication Boston, MA, United States
Publisher American Meteorological Society
Language eng
Abstract A forecast method capable of estimating date of last frost and number of frosts per season in northeastern Australia some months in advance is described. Forecast "skill" is achieved using either Southern Oscillation index (SOI) patterns (phases) during the previous austral autumn or a linear discriminant approach and the SOI. When applying these systems, it is possible to provide significantly different probability distributions of day of last frost and number of frosts, depending on the SOI patterns observed during the previous season. An analysis of the time series of frost frequency and date of last frost suggests an apparent warming trend in the data, resulting in a trend toward earlier dates of last frost and fewer numbers of frosts at many of the locations analyzed. The beneficial implications of the proposed frost forecasting system for enterprises such as winter agriculture in the region are believed to be significant.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
 
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Created: Mon, 07 Mar 2011, 15:35:15 EST