Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the southern oscillation index

Stone, Roger C., Hammer, Graeme L. and Marcussen, Torben (1996) Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the southern oscillation index. Nature, 384 6606: 252-255. doi:10.1038/384252a0


Author Stone, Roger C.
Hammer, Graeme L.
Marcussen, Torben
Title Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the southern oscillation index
Journal name Nature   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0028-0836
1476-4687
Publication date 1996-11
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1038/384252a0
Volume 384
Issue 6606
Start page 252
End page 255
Total pages 4
Place of publication London, United Kingdom
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Language eng
Abstract The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a quasi-periodic interannual variation in global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, known to be correlated with variations in the global pattern of rainfall. Good predictive models for ENSO, if they existed, would allow accurate prediction of global rainfall variations, thus leading to better management of world agricultural production, as well as improving profits and reducing risks for farmers. But our current ability to predict ENSO variation is limited. Here we describe a probabilistic rainfall 'forecasting' system that does not require ENSO predictive ability, but is instead based on the identification of lag- relationships between values of the Southern Oscillation Index, which provides a quantitative measure of the phase of the ENSO cycle, and future rainfall. The system provides rainfall probability distributions three to six months in advance for regions worldwide, and is simple enough to be incorporated into management systems now.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
 
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Created: Mon, 07 Mar 2011, 15:35:11 EST