Assessing climatic risk to sorghum production in water-limited subtropical environments. II.Effects of planting date, soil water at planting, and cultivar phenology

Muchow, R.C., Hammer, G.L. and Vanderlip, R.L. (1994) Assessing climatic risk to sorghum production in water-limited subtropical environments. II.Effects of planting date, soil water at planting, and cultivar phenology. Field Crops Research, 36 3: 235-246.


Author Muchow, R.C.
Hammer, G.L.
Vanderlip, R.L.
Title Assessing climatic risk to sorghum production in water-limited subtropical environments. II.Effects of planting date, soil water at planting, and cultivar phenology
Journal name Field Crops Research
Publication date 1994-03
Sub-type Article
DOI 10.1016/0378-4290(94)90115-5
Volume number 36
Issue number 3
ISSN 0378-4290;1872-6852
Start page 235
End page 246
Total pages 12
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier
Language eng
Abstract Rainfed crop production in the subtropics is a risky enterprise due to high rainfall variability. When planting opportunities occur, farmers face risky choices because the consequences of decisions made at planting are uncertain. This paper presents a general approach to generating the information required to assistt in making planting decisions in climatically variable subtropical environments. The approach involved coupling a sorghum growth simulation model to long-term sequences of climatic data to provide probabilistic estimates of yield for the range of decision options, such as planting time and cultivar maturity, for a range of soil conditions. The likely change in the amount of stored soil water with delay in planting was also simulated to account for the decision option of waiting for a subsequent planting opportunity. The approach was applied to three locations (Emerald, Dalby and Roma) in subtropical Australia. Production risk varied with location, time of planning, soil water storage, and cultivar phenology. Yield responses to these factors were associated closely with differences in leaf area development and degree of depletion of the water resource. The probabilistic estimates of yield and change in stored soil water provided in this paper can assist decision-makers with risky choices at planting in subtropical environments. Such information can be used in decision analysis or in computerized decision support, where decision-makers, and their risk preferences, can interact directly with the information.
Keyword Crop model
Decision support
Simulation
Yield probability
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article
Collection: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
 
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