Effects of climatic variability and possible climatic change on reliability of wheat cropping-A modelling approach

Hammer, G.L., Woodruff, D.R. and Robinson, J.B. (1987) Effects of climatic variability and possible climatic change on reliability of wheat cropping-A modelling approach. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 41 1-2: 123-142. doi:10.1016/0168-1923(87)90074-8


Author Hammer, G.L.
Woodruff, D.R.
Robinson, J.B.
Title Effects of climatic variability and possible climatic change on reliability of wheat cropping-A modelling approach
Journal name Agricultural and Forest Meteorology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0168-1923
1873-2240
Publication date 1987-10
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/0168-1923(87)90074-8
Volume 41
Issue 1-2
Start page 123
End page 142
Total pages 20
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publisher Elsevier
Language eng
Abstract Wheat cropping in the northern sector of the Australian wheat belt has been expanding into a region with a more marginal moisture regime and a more variable climate than in the established cropping regions. To provide a sound basis for land use assessment, the likely reliability of cropping in this region was examined. Reliability included the likelihood of planting a wheat crop in any year and the likely yield of planted crops. Simulation studies, using an appropriate model of the cropping system and long-term rainfall records (92-year period), were used to derive yield probability distributions for sites throughout the region. The main features of the cropping system model developed are outlined. The yield probability distributions and associated economic analyses indicated that expansion of wheat cropping in this region was likely. Trends in simulated yield sequences were compared with analyses of factors associated with recent climatic change. Similarities of patterns suggested an association of rainfall and yield trends with climate forcing factors. Implications of this association are discussed. A better understanding of the action of the climate forcing factors is required before possible climatic change can be included in determining reliability of cropping.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation
 
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