From rainfall to farm incomes - Transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system

Kokic, Philip, Nelson, Rohan, Meinke, Holger, Potgieter, Andries and Carter, John (2007). From rainfall to farm incomes - Transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system. In: International Expert Team Workshop on Impact of Climate Change/Variability and Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture, Brisbane, Australia, (993-1003). 15-18 February 2005.


Author Kokic, Philip
Nelson, Rohan
Meinke, Holger
Potgieter, Andries
Carter, John
Title of paper From rainfall to farm incomes - Transforming advice for Australian drought policy. I. Development and testing of a bioeconomic modelling system
Conference name International Expert Team Workshop on Impact of Climate Change/Variability and Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture
Conference location Brisbane, Australia
Conference dates 15-18 February 2005
Journal name Australian Journal of Agricultural Research   Check publisher's open access policy
Place of Publication Collingwood, Vic., Australia
Publisher CSIRO Publishing
Publication Year 2007
Sub-type Fully published paper
DOI 10.1071/AR06193
ISSN 0004-9409
Volume 58
Issue 10
Start page 993
End page 1003
Total pages 11
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary In this paper we report the development of a bioeconomic modelling system, AgFIRM, designed to help close a relevance gap between climate science and policy in Australia. We do this by making a simple econometric farm income model responsive to seasonal forecasts of crop and pasture growth for the coming season. The key quantitative innovation was the use of multiple and M-quantile regression to calibrate the farm income model, using simulated crop and pasture growth from 2 agroecological models. The results of model testing demonstrated a capability to reliably forecast the direction of movement in Australian farm incomes in July at the beginning of the financial year (July–June). The structure of the model, and the seasonal climate forecasting system used, meant that its predictive accuracy was greatest across Australia’s cropping regions. In a second paper, Nelson et al. (2007, this issue), we have demonstrated how the bioeconomic modelling system developed here could be used to enhance the value of climate science to Australian drought policy.
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status Non-UQ

 
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