Social and environmental determinants of malaria in space and time in Viet Nam

Manh, Bui H., Clements, Archie C. A., Thieu, Nguyen Q., Hung, Nguyen M., Hung, Le X., Hay, Simon I., Hien, Tran T., Wertheim, Heiman F. L., Snow, Robert W. and Horby, Peter (2011) Social and environmental determinants of malaria in space and time in Viet Nam. International Journal for Parasitology, 41 1: 109-116. doi:10.1016/j.ijpara.2010.08.005

Author Manh, Bui H.
Clements, Archie C. A.
Thieu, Nguyen Q.
Hung, Nguyen M.
Hung, Le X.
Hay, Simon I.
Hien, Tran T.
Wertheim, Heiman F. L.
Snow, Robert W.
Horby, Peter
Title Social and environmental determinants of malaria in space and time in Viet Nam
Journal name International Journal for Parasitology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0020-7519
Publication date 2011-01
Year available 2010
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.ijpara.2010.08.005
Volume 41
Issue 1
Start page 109
End page 116
Total pages 8
Editor A. Loukas
Place of publication Kidlington, Oxford, U.K.
Publisher Elsevier
Collection year 2011
Language eng
Formatted abstract
The malaria burden in Viet Nam has been in decline in recent decades, but localised areas of high transmission remain. We used spatiotemporal analytical tools to determine the social and environmental drivers of malaria risk and to identify residual high-risk areas where control and surveillance resources can be targeted. Counts of reported Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases by month (January 2007–December 2008) and by district were assembled. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models were developed in a Bayesian framework. Models had the percentage of the district’s population living below the poverty line, percent of the district covered by forest, median elevation, median long-term average precipitation, and minimum temperature included as fixed effects, and terms for temporal trend and residual district-level spatial autocorrelation. Strong temporal and spatial heterogeneity in counts of malaria cases was apparent. Poverty and forest cover were significantly associated with an increased count of malaria cases but the magnitude and direction of associations between climate and malaria varied by socio-ecological zone. There was a declining trend in counts of malaria cases during the study period. After accounting for the social and environmental fixed effects, substantial spatial heterogeneity was still evident. Unmeasured factors which may contribute to this residual variation include malaria control activities, population migration and accessibility to health care. Forest-related activities and factors encompassed by poverty indicators are major drivers of malaria incidence in Viet Nam.
© 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keyword Malaria
Spatial epidemiology
Bayesian statistics
Plasmodium falciparum
Plasmodium vivax
Forest cover
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Available online 15 September 2010.

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2011 Collection
School of Public Health Publications
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Created: Sun, 06 Mar 2011, 00:12:05 EST