The volatility of terrorist activity

White, Gentry, Porter, Michael and Mazerolle, Lorraine (2010). The volatility of terrorist activity. In: Second CEPS International Conference. At the Nexus: New paradigms and practices in policing and security (CEPS 2010), Canberra, ACT, Australia, (). 7-8 October 2010.

Author White, Gentry
Porter, Michael
Mazerolle, Lorraine
Title of paper The volatility of terrorist activity
Conference name Second CEPS International Conference. At the Nexus: New paradigms and practices in policing and security (CEPS 2010)
Conference location Canberra, ACT, Australia
Conference dates 7-8 October 2010
Convener Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security (CEPS)
Publication Year 2010
Sub-type Oral presentation
Collection year 2011
Language eng
Formatted Abstract/Summary
Terrorist incidents are meant to have an impact on society by increasing society's sense of volatility, the potential for future incidents. How much these incidents actually increase volatility is an open question. In this paper we present a mathematical model for discrete events as a self-exciting hurdle process. In this model we analyse the impact of incidents and multiple event incidents on the risk of incidents as well as the expected number of events per incident. We apply this model to terrorist incidents in Indonesia between 1977 and 2006. Analysis shows that there is a change point in Indonesia around 1996 that ushered in an era of increased terrorist activity. The analysis further shows that terrorist incidents do increase volatility, the risk of events and the expected number of events per incident. This is an initial attempt to model this dataset and is a first step in a more thorough course of examination incorporating more historical and contextual data into the model.
Q-Index Code EX
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ
Additional Notes Keynote presented during Concurrent Session 2 "Institutions at the policing-security nexus", Stream 2C "National security and counter-terrorism". Author prepress title: "Volatility and Terrorism Risk in Indonesia, Thailand and The Philippines".

Document type: Conference Paper
Collections: Institute for Social Science Research - Publications
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Created: Tue, 22 Feb 2011, 14:09:56 EST by Anna Bartos on behalf of Institute for Social Science Research