Issues with modelling the current and future distribution of invasive pathogens

Murray, Kris A., Retallick, Richard W. R., Puschendorf, Robert, Skerratt, Lee F., Rosauer, Dan, McCallum, Hamish I., Berger, Lee, Speare, Rick and VanDerWal, Jeremy (2011) Issues with modelling the current and future distribution of invasive pathogens. Journal of Applied Ecology, 48 1: 177-180. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01920.x

Author Murray, Kris A.
Retallick, Richard W. R.
Puschendorf, Robert
Skerratt, Lee F.
Rosauer, Dan
McCallum, Hamish I.
Berger, Lee
Speare, Rick
VanDerWal, Jeremy
Title Issues with modelling the current and future distribution of invasive pathogens
Journal name Journal of Applied Ecology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0021-8901
Publication date 2011-02
Year available 2010
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01920.x
Volume 48
Issue 1
Start page 177
End page 180
Total pages 4
Place of publication United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Collection year 2011
Language eng
Abstract Correlative species distribution models can be used to produce spatially explicit estimates of environmental suitability for organisms. This process can provide meaningful information for a range of purposes (e.g. estimating a species' current or future distribution, estimating dispersal limits, predicting occupancy for conservation planning) but, like all statistical exercises, is subject to numerous assumptions and can be influenced by several sources of potential bias. 2. In this issue of Journal of Applied Ecology, we (Murray 2011) employ a correlative species distribution model for infection with the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), cause of amphibian chytridiomycosis, to derive useful information for the immediate management and research of this pathogen in Australia. Also in this issue, Rohr, Halstead & Raffel (2011) comment on some of the potential limitations of our approach and the value of our results in practice. 3. Synthesis and applications. Here we show that while a focus on mechanisms of dispersal and transmission among hosts, as advocated in both studies, is an important objective for modelling Bd distribution under climate change or at invasion fronts, correlative models can be of immediate value for their ability to generate a baseline hypothesis about the current potential distribution of this lethal pathogen and for efficiently identifying gaps in current knowledge. As demonstrated in our paper, this should help improve the immediate allocation of limited research and management resources for future surveillance efforts and proactive species conservation. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2010 British Ecological Society.
Keyword Amphibian declines
Bioclimatic modelling
Chytrid fungus
Infectious disease
species distribution model
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: Official 2011 Collection
School of Biological Sciences Publications
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 4 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Sun, 13 Feb 2011, 00:03:05 EST