This report examines the newly emerging mobile telecommunications industry and the way it will develop' in Australia during the coming decade. The industry is reckoned to be just into the growth stage of its life cycle and so the broad trends it is now displaying are more important to interested parties than the current status of the market.
In this light, the report identifies the basic determinants that shape the industry structure generically and proposes a model for how the resulting forces interrelate.
It then surveys the types of physical systems that have been devised to the present as well as those to be launched imminently, and tries to identify the reasons why these systems evolved as they have.
Overseas experience is noted with an eye to the differences that have occurred in the various countries in the adoption of mobile telecommunications. Some of the factors that have influenced this are discussed as well as good and bad lessons to be learned from others' experience in framing regulatory structures to suit the technology.
The present Australian situation is then described including the general environment for the industry and then its present structure. An audit of how this places Australia for the coming decade is carried out.
The report then attempts to forecast the major variables in the evolutionary path for the 1990s: the Austel Inquiries into CMTS and CT-2 services and the adoption rate of mobile communications into the personal consumer market.
The conclusions drawn include the probable increase of private firm participation in network provision, the decline of systems set up for private use, a divergence of mobile and fixed networks in terms of capacity and Telecom maintaining market leadership. Mobile telecommunications is forecast to have a significant effect on lifestyles in the latter half of the decade.