Modelling the receipts and expenditures of the Queensland Government Consolidated Revenue Fund : theory and practice

Santin, Nerina Patrizia. (1989). Modelling the receipts and expenditures of the Queensland Government Consolidated Revenue Fund : theory and practice Honours Thesis, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.

       
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Author Santin, Nerina Patrizia.
Thesis Title Modelling the receipts and expenditures of the Queensland Government Consolidated Revenue Fund : theory and practice
School, Centre or Institute School of Economics
Institution The University of Queensland
Publication date 1989
Thesis type Honours Thesis
Total pages 125
Language eng
Subjects 14 Economics
Formatted abstract
Two so called traditionally separate approaches to economic time series modelling and forecasting, namely the methods of econometrics and univariate time series methods of statistical analysis are discussed and criticised so that an understanding of the way the techniques developed in relation to each other can be found. This synthesis will form the basis for an appropriate technique to be selected to model the receipts and expenditures of the Queensland Government Consolidated Revenue Fund. In theory, econometric models based on large information sets should always outperform time-series models based on very limited information sets.

Aspects of Hendry’s econometric methodology that is, the general-to-specific approach, along with Engle and Grangers' theory on co-integration to ensure valid Error Correction Mechanisms, are adopted to estimate the main revenue items of the Queensland Government Consolidated Revenue Fund. This approach was found to be the most appropriate for this purpose. It is also found that the well known debate between the econometrician and the time series analyst over which technique is better is not such an issue in England as econometrics, specifically at the London School of Economics, has developed along with time series techniques in the development of time series econometrics. In the United States, however, where the two techniques still compete this debate is still alive.


Document type: Thesis
Collection: UQ Theses (non-RHD) - UQ staff and students only
 
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Created: Fri, 03 Dec 2010, 10:27:52 EST by Ning Jing on behalf of The University of Queensland Library