Spatial and temporal effects in Mexican direct elections for the chamber of deputies

Fernandez-Duran, JJ, Poire, A and Rojas-Nandayapa, L (2004) Spatial and temporal effects in Mexican direct elections for the chamber of deputies. Political Geography, 23 5: 529-548. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2004.01.001


Author Fernandez-Duran, JJ
Poire, A
Rojas-Nandayapa, L
Title Spatial and temporal effects in Mexican direct elections for the chamber of deputies
Journal name Political Geography   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 0962-6298
1873-5096
Publication date 2004-06
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1016/j.polgeo.2004.01.001
Volume 23
Issue 5
Start page 529
End page 548
Total pages 20
Place of publication Oxford, U.K.
Publisher Pergamon
Language eng
Abstract By using data of the elections for the Chamber of Deputies of 1997 and 2000 in Mexico, we fit spatial autologistic models with temporal effects to test the significance of spatial and temporal effects on those elections. The binary variable of interest is the one that indicates a win of the National Action Party (PAN) or the alliance that it formed. By spatial effect, we refer to the fact that neighbouring constituencies present dependence on their electoral results. The temporal effect refers to the existence of dependence, for the same constituency, of the result of the election with the result of the previous election. The model that we used to test the significance of spatial and temporal effects is the spatial autologistic model with temporal effects for which estimation is complex and requires simulation techniques. By defining an urban constituency as one that contains at least one population center of 200,000 inhabitants or more, among our principal results, we find that, for the Mexican election of 2000, the spatial effect is significant only when neighbouring constituencies are both urban. For the election of 1997, the spatial effect is significant independent of the type of neighbouring constituencies. The temporal effect is significant on both elections. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keyword Mexican elections
Autologistic model
Monte Carlo maximum likelihood
Spatial effects
Temporal effects
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Provisional Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collection: School of Mathematics and Physics
 
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Created: Thu, 02 Dec 2010, 12:56:36 EST by Dr Leonardo Rojas-nandayapa on behalf of Mathematics