From climate change predictions to actions - conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale

Carvalho, Sivlia B., Brito, Jose C., Crespo, Eduardo J. and Possingham, Hugh P. (2010) From climate change predictions to actions - conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale. Global Change Biology, 16 12: 3257-3270. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02212.x


Author Carvalho, Sivlia B.
Brito, Jose C.
Crespo, Eduardo J.
Possingham, Hugh P.
Title From climate change predictions to actions - conserving vulnerable animal groups in hotspots at a regional scale
Journal name Global Change Biology   Check publisher's open access policy
ISSN 1354-1013
1365-2486
1460-7212
Publication date 2010-12
Sub-type Article (original research)
DOI 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02212.x
Volume 16
Issue 12
Start page 3257
End page 3270
Total pages 14
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Collection year 2011
Language eng
Abstract Current climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Species unable to adapt or move will face local or global extinction and this is more likely to happen to species with narrow climatic and habitat requirements and limited dispersal abilities, such as amphibians and reptiles. Biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest in global biodiversity hotspots where climate change is fast, such as the Iberian Peninsula. Here we assess the impact of climate change on 37 endemic and nearly endemic herptiles of the Iberian Peninsula by predicting species distributions for three different times into the future (2020, 2050 and 2080) using an ensemble of bioclimatic models and different combinations of species dispersal ability, emission levels and global circulation models. Our results show that species with Atlantic affinities that occur mainly in the North-western Iberian Peninsula have severely reduced future distributions. Up to 13 species may lose their entire potential distribution by 2080. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the most critical period for the majority of these species will be the next decade. While there is considerable variability between the scenarios, we believe that our results provide a robust relative evaluation of climate change impacts among different species. Future evaluation of the vulnerability of individual species to climate change should account for their adaptive capacity to climate change, including factors such as physiological climate tolerance, geographical range size, local abundance, life cycle, behavioural and phenological adaptability, evolutionary potential and dispersal ability. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Keyword Adaptive management
Amphibians
Climate change
Ensemble modelling
Q-Index Code C1
Q-Index Status Confirmed Code
Institutional Status UQ

Document type: Journal Article
Sub-type: Article (original research)
Collections: School of Mathematics and Physics
Official 2011 Collection
Ecology Centre Publications
 
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 61 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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Created: Sun, 28 Nov 2010, 00:06:06 EST