This study examines the market share of locally produced passenger motor vehicles (PMVs) in the Australian PMV market. The study period is mid-1988 to mid-1996, a period which saw local market share decline by over 20 percentage points. Three models that relate import market share to factors such as tariff rates, exchange rates, and GDP growth are estimated. Two of the models employ the Engle-Granger twostep procedure, while the third model is based on the logistic diffusion approach. The theoretical underpinnings of both methodologies are discussed and compared. It was postulated that, owing to the prevalence of structural change in the PMV industry over the study period, the logistic diffusion approach would prove the better of the two approaches, and this was found to be the case. A key result of the study was the centrality of the tariff rate in all of the models, and the results suggest that the planned tariff reductions to 15 per cent in 2000 will, ceteris paribus, significantly reduce local market share and increase the probability of additional firms following the Nissan path to full importation. The implications of a zero-tariff APEC environment in 2010 are also considered, with the scenarios presented implying either further significant reductions in local market share from the 2000 level, or the competing away of locally produced PMVs altogether.