An econometric model using a priori economic analysis for the forecasting of telephone demand in Queensland

Sanidas, E. (1984). An econometric model using a priori economic analysis for the forecasting of telephone demand in Queensland Master's Thesis, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.

       
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Author Sanidas, E.
Thesis Title An econometric model using a priori economic analysis for the forecasting of telephone demand in Queensland
School, Centre or Institute School of Economics
Institution The University of Queensland
Publication date 1984
Thesis type Master's Thesis
Total pages 132
Language eng
Subjects 14 Economics
Formatted abstract Purpose of the Thesis

The main purpose of this thesis is to develop an econometric model which explains and forecasts telephone demand in Queensland within reasonable error limits (less than +-5% with annual data according to Telecom's forecasting benchmarks).

Methods Employed

The lack of a priori economic analysis in other telephone demand model was the motivation for developing such an analysis which is then used to construct the explanatory variables for incorporation in the telephone demand model developed in this thesis. Such a priori economic analysis is based on two notions: the first is the “real-balance effect” as presented by D. Patinkin in detail in ( 33); the second notion is that of “rneta-equilibrium savings" which is an extention of the real-balance effect. With these two theoretical tools, the consumer decision-making process in relation to income, consumption and savings is developed to the extent that several "effect-variables" are constructed for use in the econometric telephone demand model developed in this thesis. Then linear and non-linear least squares methods are used to estimate the parameters and coefficients of the model.

Main Conclusions

Three major conclusions seem to follow from this study:
(1) The telephone demand model developed in this thesis is very successful in explaining and forecasting telephone demand in Queensland - the forecasting error has been no more than +-1.5% for each year since 1970-71;
(2) The success of this model is primarily due to sound a priori economic foundations;
(3) Economic theory is necessary in order to construct econometric models.


 
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